Watching the numbers: how to read Stephen Fierbaugh’s Tyler COVID scorecard

The Tyler COVID-19 scorecard is intended to help you make your own determination of the risk COVID-19 poses to your family and community.  It consists of three key measurements: excess deaths, community spread and TISD spread, along with sufficient context to understand whether these stats are getting better or worse. The scorecard will be updated in the Tyler Loop every week.

Excess deaths

Sadly, this year many more people are dying in our community than in previous years. The excess deaths number is the number of deaths above average from the previous month. This number is updated once a month as data becomes available from the local registrar of the City of Tyler.

The first number that provides context is the change from the previous month. The down arrow indicates we’re faring better; the up arrow says mortalities have increased.

Community spread

The community spread score is from NET Health and is updated once a week. It is the seven-day average of the daily COVID-19 new positives divided by the population and then multiplied by 100,000.  This gives a score which is per-hundred thousand and so can be compared across communities, regardless of differences in population size.

Context is provided by the change from last week’s score.  Down is good and up is bad.

TISD spread

The TISD spread uses the same formula as the community spread score but calculated for students and staff of Tyler Independent School District. It is based on data from the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) which is self-reported by the district.

School COVID-19 data is a new and rapidly evolving area of research. As newer metrics and ways to measure school risk become available, the Tyler Loop may update its tracking.

Stephen Fierbaugh was lead IT Project Manager for a large hospital ship being built in China. Now, he’s looking for new places to serve. Are these statistics helpful? Would you like to see similar information for your city or organization? Stephen has his Masters in Intercultural Studies with a focus on ICT4D (technology) and is PMI certified as a Project Management Professional (PMP). Check out his LinkedIn for more examples of his skills and experience.

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